INTELLIGENCE, SECRECY & POWER ISSN 1245-2122
N. 681, 15 November 2016 Full Issue (79 pages)
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FRONT PAGE – TRUMP UPSET WIN, FBI PLAYS POLITICS, BREXIT BOILS UP
World Media – Synthesis Based on the Most Noteworthy Entries from 1 November 2016 to 15 November 2016
The major topics of the previous issue of “Intelligence, Secrecy & Power” (ISP, n. 680, 31 October 2016) were: US POLITICS (19X) Voting Registration, Death Penalty, Less Abortion Restrictions; US SPOOKS (16X) FBI & Clinton Emails, FBI Boss Comey in Hot Water, AT&T Spying All; TRUMP (14X) Evangelists Split, Old Brass Criticizes, Sexual Assaults, Trump TV, Anti-Clinton Threat. These leading topics were followed by: US COPS (12X) Police Chiefs Apologize, Tougher Oversight, Police Drug Gang, NYPD, Standing Rock; and WESTERN EUROPE (10X) Brexit Trouble Everywhere. The remaining topics were: ISRAEL/PALESTINE, AFRICA, ENVIRONMENT, PAKISTAN/AFGHANISTAN/INDIA, MIDDLE EAST, ECONOMICS, ASIA, EASTERN EUROPE, and LATIN AMERICA.
This issue’s leading topics are: US POLITICS (34X) Major Upset, Trump Wins, KKK Celebrates, Old GOP Hawks Back in Town; US SPOOKS (13X) FBI Plays High Stakes Politics & Wins, Intel History & Budgets; WESTERN EUROPE (10X) Brexit Boils Up, Assange Questioned, Trump Revives Extreme Right; and CANDIDATE TRUMP (7X) Candidate’s Last Bad Press. These were followed by: MIDDLE EAST, ISRAEL/PALESTINE, PAKISTAN/AFGHANISTAN, US COPS, ASIA, ECONOMICS, EASTERN EUROPE, AFRICA, TECH, ENVIRONMENT, and LATIN AMERICA.
In our previous issue, TRUMP had dropped to third place behind US POLITICS and US SPOOKS, after having been at the top in the preceding issue, largely due to his lewd talk about women revealed in the press. In this issue, Trump begins as a candidate (CANDIDATE TRUMP) but finishes as President-elect in US POLITICS, which explains why the latter topic is at the top and far ahead of all others and has clearly drawn media attention away from more traditional topics of conflict such as MIDDLE EAST, ISRAEL/PALESTINE and PAKISTAN/AFGHANISTAN. Because of the FBI’s direct involvement in the presidential election, US SPOOKS remains near the top in second place. US COPS, previously in fourth place, has been dropped from the middle range topics to the lower tier, and probably reflects the influence of the presidential election and the influence of Trump winning. All of this is likely to change as Trump tries to prepare a team to run the country and the world.
Intelligence, Secrecy & Power, N. 681, 15 November 2016
FULL LIST OF TOPICS BASED OF ALL NOTEWORTHY ENTRIES OF THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER 2016
US POLITICS (34X) Major Upset, Trump Wins, KKK Celebrates, Old GOP Hawks Back in Town
US SPOOKS (13X) FBI Plays High Stakes Politics & Wins, Intel History & Budgets
WESTERN EUROPE (10X) Brexit Boils Up, Assange Questioned, Trump Revives Extreme Right
CANDIDATE TRUMP (7X) Candidate’s Last Bad Press
MIDDLE EAST (5X) ISIS Losing, Turkey Arrests Almost Everybody
ISRAEL/PALESTINE (4X) Boycott Gets US Backing for Now
PAKISTAN/AFGHANISTAN (4X) Jihadist Citadel
US COPS (4X) Cops Killed, Deadly Cops Seldom Found Guilty
ASIA (4X) China, Indonesia, Australia
ECONOMICS (3X) Trump Influence Already
EASTERN EUROPE (2X) Ukraine, Russia & Trump
AFRICA (2X) Boko Haram Quitters, Zimbabwe Quitters
TECH (2X) Deadly Social Media, Racist Facebook
ENVIRONMENT (1X) Climate Pact & Trump
LATIN AMERICA (1X) Another Colombian Peace Deal
Intelligence, Secrecy & Power, N. 681, 15 November 2016
LENGTHIEST 1-15 NOVEMBER 2016 ENTRIES
1 NOVEMBER 2016
Fighting Militants in Pakistan – Who Is In Charge/ By James M Dorsey\ A lethal attack on a Pakistani police academy in Quetta, the provincial capital of Baluchistan, highlights the country’s power struggle over policy towards militant Saudi-backed Islamist groups nurtured by the Pakistan military and intelligence service. It also spotlights China’s willingness to accommodate Pakistani ambivalence towards militants. Commentary – THE OCTOBER attack on a police academy in Quetta that killed 61 cadets and wounded some 170 others, the worst such incident since an assault in December 2014 on a military school in Peshawar, has exacerbated tensions between the government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, the military, and the country’s intelligence service, the Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI). The attack occurred barely two months after a bombing virtually wiped out Baluchistan’s legal elite and less than two weeks after senior government officials, including Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, clashed with military commanders and intelligence leaders over counterterrorism policy. Sharif and his ministers warned their military and intelligence counterparts that Pakistan risked international isolation if it failed to implement a national counterterrorism action plan adopted in the wake of the attack in Peshawar two years ago. The civilians’ warning included the fact that the military and intelligence service’s selective crackdown on militants puts US$46 billion in Chinese infrastructure investments at risk. Crucial Chinese Link – Pakistan constitutes a crucial link in China’s One Belt, One Road initiative designed to link the Eurasian landmass through infrastructure, transportation and telecommunications. The Baluch port of Gwadar is key to the maritime and land links China is trying to create that would give it geopolitical advantage, theoretically more secure routes for the import of badly needed resources and export of Chinese goods, and help Beijing develop economically the strategic but restive north-western Chinese province of Xinjiang. Baluchistan is also crucial because it borders on Iran and constitutes a potential battleground for proxies of Saudi Arabia and Iran in their bitter struggle for regional hegemony. This province is also historically a key territorial conduit for the opposing forces in Afghanistan and their respective insurgency campaigns. In a blunt statement during the meeting of civilian and military leaders leaked to Dawn newspaper, Foreign Secretary Aizaz Chaudhry noted that Pakistan’s closest ally, China continued to block, at the request of the Pakistani military and the ISI, sanctioning by the United Nations of Masood Azhar, a leader of UN-designated Jaish-e-Mohammad, but Beijing was increasingly questioning the wisdom of doing so. Jaish-e-Mohammed has long served as a proxy in Pakistan’s dispute with India over Kashmir. Azhar was arrested in the aftermath of the Peshawar attack but released in April 2016. Azhar was long held in Indian prison on charges of kidnapping foreigners in Kashmir but was freed in 1999 in exchange for passengers of a hijacked Indian Airlines flight. Jaish-e-Mohammed was responsible for a 2001 attack on the Indian parliament among other incidents. The group was however conspicuously absent from a list of groups, issued earlier this month by the State Bank of Pakistan, whose accounts were frozen as part of the government’s selective crackdown on militants.
CIA Releases Controversial Bay of Pigs History – 2016 Change in FOI Law Overturns Agency Stonewalling – CIA fought release for years, claimed draft would “confuse the public” – National Security Archive FOIA case prompted Congress’s 25-year sunset/ National Security Archive\ The CIA today released the long-contested Volume V of its official history of the Bay of Pigs invasion, which it had successfully concealed until now by claiming that it was a “draft” and could be withheld from the public under the FOIA’s “deliberative process” privilege. The National Security Archive fought the agency for years in court to release the historically significant volume, only to have the US Court of Appeals in 2014 uphold the CIA’s overly-broad interpretation of the “deliberative process” privilege. Special credit for today’s release goes to the champions of the 2016 FOIA amendments, which set a 25-year sunset for the exemption: Senators John Cornyn, Patrick Leahy, and Chuck Grassley, and Representatives Jason Chaffetz, Elijah Cummings, and Darrell Issa.
3 NOVEMBER 2016
Taking on militants – A fight for the soul of Pakistan/ By James M. Dorsey\ Two high-level meetings in recent months involving senior military commanders and intelligence officials and/or top-level government representatives spotlight Pakistan’s difficulty in coming to grips with domestic and regional political violence resulting from decades of support of militant Islamist and jihadist groups for foreign policy and ideological reasons. Overcoming those difficulties could determine Pakistan’s future, the nature of its society and its place in the world. The first of those meeting was a gathering in August of Pakistani military commanders in the wake of a massive bombing in Quetta that killed some 70 people and wiped out a generation of lawyers in the province of Baluchistan. The commanders concluded that the attack constituted a sinister foreign-inspired plot that aimed to thwart their effort to root out political violence. Their analysis stroked with their selective military campaign aimed at confronting specific groups like the Pakistani Taliban and the Sunni-Muslim Lashkar-e-Jhangvi rather than any organization that engages in political violence and/or targets minorities. The commanders’ approach failed to acknowledge the real lesson of Quetta: decades of Pakistani military and intelligence support underwritten by funding from Saudi Arabia for sectarian and ultra-conservative groups and religious schools in Pakistan that has divided the country almost irreversibly. Generations of religious students have their critical faculties stymied by rote learning and curricula dominated by memorization of exclusionary beliefs and prejudice resulting in bigotry and misogyny woven into the fabric of Pakistani society. “The enemy within is not a fringe… Large sections of society sympathize with these groups. They fund them, directly and indirectly. They provide them recruits. They reject the Constitution and the system. They don’t just live in the ‘bad lands’ but could be our neighbours. The forces have not only to operate in areas in the periphery, along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, but have also to operate in the cities where hundreds, perhaps thousands form sleeper cells, awaiting orders or planning to strike,” said Pakistani columnist Ejaz Haider in a recent commentary. Top Pakistani political leaders echoed Mr. Haider’s sentiment in a second meeting in October that gathered the country’s civilian and military leadership around the table. Reporting in Dawn, Pakistan’s foremost English-language newspaper, on differences between the civilian and military components of the state, united politicians and officers in their denials of differences and prompted a government investigation into what it alleged was a false and inaccurate story. Dawn, standing by the accuracy of its story, reported that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and other government ministers had warned their military and intelligence counterparts that key elements of the country’s two-year old national action plan to eradicate political violence and sectarianism, including enforcing bans on designated groups, reforming madrassas, and empowering the National Counter Terrorism Authority (NACTA) had not been implemented. The 20-point plan was adopted after militants had attacked a military school in Peshawar in December 2014, killing 141 people, including 132 students. In a blunt statement during the meeting, Foreign Minister Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry charged, according to Dawn, that Pakistan risked international isolation if it failed to crack down on militant groups, including Jaish-e-Mohammed, Lashkar-e-Taiba; and the Haqqani network – all designated as terrorist groups by the United Nations. Mr. Chaudhry noted that Pakistan’s closest ally, China, with its massive $46 billion investment in Pakistani infrastructure, continued to block UN sanctioning of Jaish-i-Mohammed leader Masood Azhar, but was increasingly questioning the wisdom of doing so.
6 NOVEMBER 2016
Creating a legal precedent – Palestine considers suing Israel in international sports court/ By James M. Dorsey\ The Palestine Football Association (PFA), in a first testing of Palestine’s ability to fight its battle with Israel in international courts, plans to go to the world’s top court for sports in a bid to force its Israeli counterpart to view Israeli settlements on the West Bank as occupied territory rather than an extension of the Jewish state. The potential Palestinian move follows the Palestinian Authority’s campaign to isolate Israel in international organizations and challenge Israel’s occupation of the West Bank in the International Criminal Court (ICC). Using soccer as a testing ground, Palestine’s efforts to confront Israel in international organizations has produced mixed results. While Palestine succeeded in joining various international organizations, the PFA last year failed to muster sufficient votes to persuade world soccer body FIFA to suspend Israel. The PFA argued that the policies of the Israeli government and the Israel Football Association (IFA) violated FIFA rules as well as international law governing the status of occupied territory.
8 NOVEMBER 2016
Intelligence Community Programs, Management, and Enduring Issues/ Congressional Research Service, Anne Daugherty Miles, 7-5700 http://www.crs.gov R44681\ Congress’s and the American public’s ability to oversee and understand how intelligence dollars are spent is limited by the secrecy that surrounds the intelligence budget process. Yet, total spending on the Intelligence Community (IC) programs discussed in this report equates to approximately $70 billion dollars—roughly 10% of national defense spending. This report is designed to shed light on the IC budget—in terms of its programs, management, and enduring issues—using unclassified materials available in the public domain. This report focuses those IC programs, grouped, for the most part, under two labels: (1) the National Intelligence Program (NIP), and (2) the Military Intelligence Program (MIP). … This report explains the management structure for the NIP and MIP to include their two separate budget processes and the roles of the Director of National Intelligence and the Under Secretary of Defense (Intelligence). The concluding section of this report considers the ability of the US government to make the best use of its intelligence-related resources when: (1) total intelligence spending is impossible to calculate; (2) its management and oversight is completely decentralized; and (3) IC funding alone is largely divided into two categories (NIP and MIP)– managed within the executive branch separately, justified to Congress separately, and overseen by separate congressional committees.
Intelligence, Secrecy & Power, N. 681, 15 November 2016
ALL NOTEWORTHY TITLES OF THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER 2016 ORGANIZED BY TOPIC
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